Imagine trying to buy concert tickets when everyone suddenly remembers the show's tonight – that's essentially what's happening in China's distributed solar market. Major manufacturers like Jinko Solar and Tongwei Co. have raised panel prices by 0.02-0.03元/W since February 2025, marking the first significant uptick since prices crashed below 0.7元/W in September 2024. The culprit? A classic case of FOMO (fear of missing out) among developers racing to complete projects before May's policy deadlin
Contact online >>
Imagine trying to buy concert tickets when everyone suddenly remembers the show's tonight – that's essentially what's happening in China's distributed solar market. Major manufacturers like Jinko Solar and Tongwei Co. have raised panel prices by 0.02-0.03元/W since February 2025, marking the first significant uptick since prices crashed below 0.7元/W in September 2024. The culprit? A classic case of FOMO (fear of missing out) among developers racing to complete projects before May's policy deadline.
While Chinese installers scramble, European warehouses tell a different story. After distributors cleared 2024's excess inventory like Marie Kondo decluttering a storage unit, spot prices tentatively climbed to 0.088-0.09€/W. But here's the kicker – this "recovery" still leaves margins thinner than a solar wafer. Manufacturers face a cruel paradox: celebrating price hikes that don't even cover cash costs.
In October 2024, 33 Chinese manufacturers signed a "we'll behave adults" pact to curb capacity expansion. The results? January 2025 saw global panel output drop 19.1% as producers played production chicken. But like dieters eyeing a buffet, the discipline is wavering – Q2 2025 capacity expansions could flood the market again.
Current projections resemble a weather forecast during monsoon season – everyone's guessing. Industry insiders see two potential scenarios:
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| Distributed installations hit 1.5亿kW in 2025 | Post-May demand drops 30-40% |
| European summer installations boost exports | New 300GW+ capacity comes online in H2 |
| Polysilicon stabilizes at 4.2万元/ton | Inventory rebuilds create oversupply |
Trina Solar's recent 0.05元/W price hike for distributed projects shows manufacturers testing the waters – like kids dipping toes in a pool. But here's the rub: even at 0.72元/W, margins remain tighter than a hipster's jeans.
While everyone obsesses over panel prices, the real drama's unfolding at substations. China's grid absorbed 346.2亿kWh from distributed systems in 2024 – equivalent to powering Switzerland for 18 months. As one grid operator quipped, "We're not just managing electrons anymore, we're herding solar cats." This infrastructure strain could ultimately cap growth more effectively than any price fluctuation.
Amid the price chaos, three technologies could rewrite the rules:
Jolywood's latest 700W+ panels demonstrate the industry's relentless drive to outpace its own commoditization – like a chef constantly reinventing potato dishes. But will innovation outrace the cost curve? That's the trillion-yuan question.
Visit our Blog to read more articles
We are deeply committed to excellence in all our endeavors.
Since we maintain control over our products, our customers can be assured of nothing but the best quality at all times.